Egg freezing success rate calculator
This calculator estimates your chance of at least one live birth from frozen eggs, using your age at freezing and the number of mature eggs banked. Twenty mature eggs frozen at 35 gives roughly a 90% modeled chance; the same 20 eggs at 42 gives about 37%. It runs the published Goldman 2017 counseling model and shows the conservative range, not a single hopeful number.
Your odds of a live birth from frozen eggs
Based on the published Goldman 2017 counseling model. Enter your age at freezing and how many mature eggs you'd bank.
A model estimate, not a promise. The realistic range applies the study's own 19% downward adjustment for frozen-vs-fresh eggs; your clinic's lab and your biology shift it further. See the math →
How to read your result
The big number is the modeled probability of at least one live birth if you thaw every egg you banked and carry the resulting embryos. The smaller range beneath it applies the study's own ~19% downward adjustment for frozen versus fresh eggs — treat that lower figure as the realistic floor and the headline as the optimistic ceiling.
Four numbers, four different questions:
- At least one live birth — the headline figure, and the only one most people need.
- Two / three children — each extra child needs its own chromosomally normal embryo, so these fall away much faster than people expect.
- Likely viable embryos — expected euploid blastocysts from your eggs. Below about 1.0, the odds are fragile no matter how the percentage reads.
- The range — the gap between the two percentages is the honesty margin. It widens with age.
Egg freezing success rate by age and egg count
Every cell is the modeled chance of at least one live birth, with the frozen-adjusted floor in parentheses. Same model as the calculator above, computed at build time.
| Age at freezing | 10 eggs | 15 eggs | 20 eggs | 25 eggs | 30 eggs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 88% (71%) | 96% (78%) | 99% (80%) | 100% (81%) | 100% (81%) |
| 32 | 81% (66%) | 92% (74%) | 96% (78%) | 98% (80%) | 99% (80%) |
| 34 | 73% (59%) | 86% (70%) | 93% (75%) | 96% (78%) | 98% (79%) |
| 35 | 69% (56%) | 83% (67%) | 90% (73%) | 95% (77%) | 97% (79%) |
| 36 | 60% (48%) | 74% (60%) | 84% (68%) | 90% (73%) | 93% (76%) |
| 37 | 50% (40%) | 65% (52%) | 75% (61%) | 82% (67%) | 87% (71%) |
| 38 | 45% (36%) | 59% (48%) | 69% (56%) | 77% (63%) | 83% (67%) |
| 40 | 30% (25%) | 42% (34%) | 51% (42%) | 59% (48%) | 66% (54%) |
| 42 | 20% (16%) | 29% (23%) | 37% (30%) | 43% (35%) | 49% (40%) |
| 44 | 8% (6%) | 11% (9%) | 15% (12%) | 18% (15%) | 21% (17%) |
Eggs needed to clear a 75% chance of one live birth
- Age 32: about 9 mature eggs
- Age 34: about 11 mature eggs
- Age 36: about 16 mature eggs
- Age 37: about 20 mature eggs
- Age 38: about 24 mature eggs
- Age 40: about 38 mature eggs
- Age 42: about 61 mature eggs
The jump between 38 and 42 is the whole argument for freezing earlier: the target roughly triples while a single retrieval cycle yields fewer eggs, not more. Targets above 40 eggs run past the calculator's slider and past what one or two retrievals realistically bank. Detail on the how many eggs and success rate by age pages.
Why this calculator does not ask for your AMH
AMH and antral follicle count answer a different question: how many eggs will one stimulation cycle produce? They are inputs to your retrieval plan, not to your odds afterwards. Once the eggs are in the tank, what predicts a live birth is your age when they were frozen and how many mature eggs you actually have — which is exactly what the published model uses.
Practical order: get an AMH test and an antral follicle count to estimate your yield per cycle, ask your clinic how many mature (MII) eggs were vitrified — not total eggs retrieved — then put that number in here. Entering retrieved rather than mature eggs is the single most common way people overstate their own odds.
Which egg freezing calculator should you use?
Several tools answer the same question with different data and different incentives. What each one actually gives you:
| Tool | Run by | What it outputs | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| This calculator | EggFreezingOdds — independent, not a clinic | Live birth odds for one, two and three children, plus expected euploid embryos and a conservative range | Goldman et al. 2017 (BWH/NYU) |
| BWH EFCT on MDCalc | MDCalc, for clinicians; creators Dr. Randi Goldman and Dr. Janis Fox | Likelihood of live birth; flagged as not externally validated | Goldman et al. 2017 — the same model |
| The Lucky Egg calculator | Dr. Lucky Sekhon, REI at RMA of New York | Expected number of chromosomally normal embryos, not a live-birth percentage | Clinician-built tool |
| YourIVFSuccess egg freezing calculator | UNSW Sydney, independent of IVF clinics | Egg freezing estimates for Australian patients | Real-world Australian IVF registry data |
| Clinic-hosted calculators | Individual fertility clinics | Varies; usually paired with a booking call | Often undisclosed — check before trusting the number |
If you are in Australia, run the UNSW tool as well: national registry data beats any single-cohort model for your population. Everywhere else, the Goldman model is the most widely cited counseling reference — the reason we publish the coefficients rather than hiding them behind a form.
What the model does, in one pass
Your eggs move through four gates, and each one takes a cut:
- Thaw survival — about 95% of mature eggs survive warming under age 36, about 85% at 36 and over.
- Blastocyst formation — surviving eggs fertilise and a share reach blastocyst, declining with age.
- Euploidy — 57.4% of blastocysts are chromosomally normal at 35 and under, falling age by age to 12.7% at 44 (the study's own table: 48.6% at 37, 35.9% at 40, 28.5% at 42).
- Live birth per euploid embryo transferred — about 60%.
Chain those together and each mature egg carries its own independent chance of becoming a live birth — 11% at 35, 2.2% at 42. The odds of at least one, two or three children are the binomial tails of that per-egg chance across the eggs you banked. The full derivation, the coefficients and every source sit on the methodology page and the sources page. Valid range: ages 28–44, up to 40 eggs.
Calibration, in the open. This implementation reproduces the study's published outputs exactly: 69% / 90% / 97% for 10, 20 and 30 eggs at 35, 75% for 20 eggs at 37, 51% at 40 and 37% at 42, and 61 eggs to clear 75% at 42. It uses the authors' own age-by-age euploidy table rather than a straight-line approximation, which is what keeps the oldest ages honest. Checked against the paper's figures on every build.
What it cannot tell you
- Your clinic's real lab performance. Thaw survival and blastocyst rates vary between labs; ask for theirs by age band before you commit. Our clinic questions list has the exact wording.
- Your own biology. PCOS, endometriosis, prior surgery and smoking all shift yield and quality — see egg freezing with PCOS or endometriosis.
- Whether it is worth the money. That is a cost and life-timing question, covered on the cost and is it worth it pages.
- Sperm and uterine factors at the time of transfer, which sit outside the model entirely.
Medical disclaimer: This calculator is general information, not medical advice, and not a guarantee of any outcome. Figures are model estimates and cohort averages; your own result depends on your biology and your clinic's laboratory. Always consult a board-certified reproductive endocrinologist before making fertility decisions.